Don’t panic about stock markets. It won’t help.
Expat families in China are understandably nervous about the headlines from the business & investing section. Global equity markets are experiencing record losses. It may have started in the US, but the bear market has spread to the rest of the world. For some of you, this is the first time you are losing money in financial markets. For others, this is a case of ‘been there, seen that’. Separating fact from rumor and analysis from emotion is going to be difficult over the next few weeks.
The bad news? Your portfolio has probably suffered some pretty significant damage. A classic bear market is characterized by a 20% drop – and many indices are already approaching that. The last few weeks have been highly volatile and investments not directly related to mortgage risk or other fundamentals are being hit just as hard as unhealthy companies.
The good news – or at least the silver lining? The entire stock market is suddenly on sale. Companies and markets that you liked at $100 are even more attractive at $80 – provided the fundamentals haven’t changed. What’s more, a recession can actually have a beneficial effect on certain economic problems. Inflation - particularly oil prices - is acually eased by economic slowdowns.
The reality? The worst of news is probably mostly over. That doesn’t mean that a bull market is upon us – we may be stuck in a ‘sideways trend’ for a while. It does mean, however, that what is done is done. Don’t make any sudden moves to try to save the situation. Now is a great time to sit down to calmly, rationally plan out your future.
What can you do now?
1) Perspective and long term viewpoint. During the bull market when stocks and funds set new highs every day, it was easy to invest for the sake of investing. Now that we understand market risk a little differently, it is important to make some hard decisions about what your most important goals really are. Devote at least a portion of your funds to long term (10 years + )
2) Form a plan. If you don’t understand the difference between planning, savings and investing, then this is a great time to look into it. Financial planning is long term and puts a premium on stability and meeting specific goals. If you have been blindly following someone else’s advice, this is a great time to do a little research and develop your own knowledge base.
3) Look on the bright side. The market is on sale. Inflation is dropping. There is great potential for you to capitalize on the next big market move. It will come soon enough, so be ready.
4) Listen to experts. Everyone is a genius in the bull market. The time for insider tips and fancy advice from friends of investment banker friends is over. CFOs of Fortune 500 firms can employ hedging strategies and other sophisticated trading techniques. Household decision-makers should be focusing on stable, long term strategies that will help you retire comfortably and meet major household obligations. Personal financial planning isn’t watered down investment banking – it’s a completely separate discipline.
5) Live to fight another day. This time next month we will be looking at a very different market environment. Some cautious investors will go to cash or safer investments. Great. But if you make any rash moves that lock your funds in to stable but low-yielding instruments, you will feel pain from the sidelines of the next bull move.
Posted: January 22nd, 2008 under Uncategorized.
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